Completed 28 minutes ago

Gambler

0x8feb3a7d8bf1e424679fc75753b363eba5ee8185

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Window

7.0d

Fills

824

Closed PnL

$-5.06K

Win rate

69.1%

TL;DR

This is a short-funding harvester on Hyperliquid alt perps that blew up a concentrated ZEREBRO short. The diagnostic signature is a 69.1% win rate paired with a 0.689 profit factor and -$16,105/trade expectancy — winners average $51.6 while losers average -$167.6. Net result over the 7-day window: -$5,057 realized, with $1,060 of funding income failing to offset a single-name -$16,198 drawdown.

How they trade

The book is 10 low/mid-cap alts (TON 26.9%, MEGA 20.2%, kPEPE 18.1%, AZTEC 15.5%, ZEREBRO 7.6%) with zero majors and a clear short bias (489 sells vs 335 buys). Entries are laddered taker clips — median fill $321, maker_pct=0 — stacked in seconds toward round-number unit milestones (TON built -500, -1000, …, -5000; ZEREBRO reached -900,000 units, ~$28.8k notional on $70.8k equity). Fills cluster sharply at UTC 07 (229 fills) and 15–16, and Fridays alone account for 383 of 824 fills. Winning shorts on TON, MEGA, kPEPE, and HMSTR are scalped out in many small clips (TON: +$6,670 over 182 fills, ~$37/fill, 100% win rate when closed). There is no observable stop-loss: median hold 12.6h, p95 52h, and the only loss-management event in-window was the ZEREBRO unwind — 96 close-short buys in 49 seconds walking price from 0.0312 to 0.0335 for a -$16,198 realized loss. Account leverage currently sits at 0.45× across 5 open positions, but single-name notional has demonstrably exceeded equity.

Edge hypothesis

The real edge is funding harvest: $1,060/week on a $70k account annualizes near 78% gross if sustained, and 500 funding payments across 10 names is consistent with continuous short carry. The high win rate on TON/MEGA/kPEPE/HMSTR is the funding drip realizing as small mean-reverting take-profits. The strategy has no tail-risk control, so a single high-funding name that trends against the short (ZEREBRO) wipes out weeks of carry.

Numbers that matter

Metric	Value
Closed PnL (7d)	-$5,056.94
Win rate	69.1% (217W / 97L)
Profit factor	0.689
Avg winner / avg loser	$51.6 / -$167.6
Largest loss / largest win	-$1,817.87 / $330.00
Funding collected	$1,060.25 (500 payments)
Max drawdown (ZEREBRO)	-$16,198.05
Maker % / fills per day	0% / 149.1

What we cannot conclude

Whether the ZEREBRO unwind was voluntary or an exchange auto-liquidation — the 900k→0 cover in 49s at deteriorating prices is consistent with either.
Whether single-name blow-ups are recurring; 7 days is too short to distinguish a one-off from a regular failure mode.
True per-asset funding economics — 500 payments across 10 names is suggestive of continuous carry but not broken out per asset.
Open-position PnL on ZRO, MNT, BLAST, and BIO (0 closed PnL) — realized stats understate live exposure.
Whether off-Hyperliquid hedges exist; directional risk could be partially offset elsewhere.

Classifier signals

Gambler conf 0.7 also: Unclear

▪ ZEREBRO: 96 buys closing shorts in 82 seconds, -$16,198 loss = max drawdown
▪ Single-asset blowup drove entire negative PnL (-$5,057 net)
▪ Profit factor 0.689, expectancy -$16.10/trade despite 69% win rate
▪ avg_loser ($167) >> avg_winner ($51) — classic blow-up asymmetry
▪ Largest loss $1,817 vs largest win $330
▪ Leverage 0.45 now but ZEREBRO short hit 900k units — leverage spike pattern
▪ Funding $1,060 dwarfs nothing — actually 21% of closed PnL magnitude, but funding alone didn't drive losses

Synthesized rules

Entry rules

Persistent short bias on high-funding alts

Open shorts (side=A) in alt perps when cumulative funding is positive (long pays short). Stack opens in same direction over a 1–5 minute window via market orders (taker only, maker_pct=0).

Evidence: TON sample: 30 consecutive 'Open Short' fills between 07:33:40 and 07:38:11 building from 0 to -5,500 units; funding collected = $1,060 over 500 payments (~$2.12/payment) confirming systematic short-funding harvest. Sell count 489 vs buy 335.
Scaled / laddered position build

Split entries into 5–30 small market clips (avg fill $463, median $321) within seconds, often at round-number cumulative size milestones (-500, -1000, -1500, -2000, -2500, -5000 units).

Evidence: TON fills show start_pos hitting exact -500, -1000, -1500, -2000, -2500, -5000 sequentially; ZEREBRO short was sized to exactly -900,000 units before unwind.
Aggressive size relative to equity

Notional per asset can reach >1× account equity on a single name (ZEREBRO short ~900k units × ~$0.032 ≈ $28.8k notional on ~$70k account, plus simultaneous TON/MEGA/kPEPE shorts).

Evidence: current margin_used $31,989 on $70,808 equity (0.45× lev now), but ZEREBRO start_pos -900,000 implies concentrated single-name exposure prior to unwind.

Exit rules

Forced/panic short-cover (the blow-up)

When adverse move materializes, close entire short via dozens of market buys in <90 seconds with no price discipline — accepts progressively worse prices (0.0312 → 0.0335).

Evidence: ZEREBRO: 96 'Close Short' buy fills from 09:18:04 to ~09:18:53 (49 seconds), prices walked from 0.0312 up to 0.0335 (+7.4%), cumulative PnL went from -$69 to -$16,149; max_drawdown_usd -$16,198 at 2026-05-05T09:19:26Z.
Small take-profit scalps on winning shorts

On profitable shorts (TON/MEGA/kPEPE/HMSTR), close in many small clips collecting tiny gains; avg_winner only $51.6.

Evidence: win_rate 0.691 with 217 winners avg $51.6; TON closed_pnl +$6,670 across 182 fills (~$37/fill); HMSTR +$2,277 with win_rate 1.0.
No stop-loss; hold-through losers

No evidence of a hard stop. Median hold 12.6h, p95 52h, max 52h. Losers held until either funding recovers them or position is force-closed at a much worse price.

Evidence: avg_loser -$167 vs avg_winner +$51 (3.2× asymmetry); largest_loss -$1,818 vs largest_win +$330 (5.5×); profit_factor 0.689.

Sizing

Fixed-clip market-order laddering: clips of ~$300–500 notional (median fill $321), repeated 5–40× per entry to build a target position at round-number unit milestones (e.g., -500, -1000, -2500, -5000, -900000). No equity-based scaling — single-asset notional can exceed account equity (ZEREBRO short ~$29k on $70k equity). All taker (maker_pct=0).

Edges

▪Funding harvesting: systematic short-side bias on high-funding alts collected $1,060/week (~$55k annualized on $70k = 78% APR gross) — a real but capacity-limited edge.
▪High base-rate win rate (69.1%) on small mean-reversion-style short scalps in alt perps (TON/MEGA/kPEPE/HMSTR all 100% win rate when closed).
▪Liquidity timing: concentrates fills at UTC 07 and 15–16 — likely Asia open / Europe afternoon liquidity windows.

Risk Management

▪No hard stop-loss: losers (avg -$167) are 3.2× winners (avg $51); largest single loss $1,818 is 5.5× largest win $330.
▪Concentration risk realized: ZEREBRO alone produced -$16,198 (entire max drawdown) on a single 900k-unit short, while TON/MEGA/kPEPE/HMSTR gains (+$11,158 combined) were insufficient to offset → net -$5,057.
▪Exit-on-pain pattern: when a short moves against him he liquidates aggressively in <60s via market orders, paying ~7% slippage on ZEREBRO unwind.
▪Funding income ($1,060) is real but only ~21% of trading losses — does not compensate for tail risk.
▪Heavy clustering at UTC 07:00 (229 fills) and Fridays (383 fills, 46% of week) — operational/time-zone concentration.

Caveats

▪Only 7 days of fills — cannot determine if ZEREBRO blow-up is recurring behavior or a one-off; profile may look very different over a longer window.
▪ZRO/MNT/BLAST/BIO have 0 closed PnL — positions still open or never closed in window, so realized stats understate exposure.
▪Cannot observe order-book context (was ZEREBRO a forced liquidation by the exchange vs voluntary panic exit?). The 900k→0 unwind in 49s at deteriorating prices is consistent with auto-liquidation.
▪No visibility into off-exchange hedges or external signals driving asset selection.
▪Funding payment count (500) vs unique assets (10) implies ~50 funding intervals per asset ≈ 6 days of continuous holding — consistent with funding-farm thesis but not provable without per-asset funding breakdown.

Strategy code & backtest

Convert the synthesized rules into a runnable Freqtrade IStrategy file.

Raw feature profile ▾

{
  "pnl": {
    "losers": 97,
    "winners": 217,
    "win_rate": 0.691,
    "avg_loser_usd": -167.56,
    "closing_fills": 314,
    "profit_factor": 0.689,
    "avg_winner_usd": 51.6,
    "expectancy_usd": -16.1049,
    "largest_win_usd": 330.0,
    "largest_loss_usd": -1817.87,
    "closed_pnl_total_usd": -5056.94
  },
  "fees": {
    "maker_pct": 0.0,
    "total_fees_usd": 153.4,
    "avg_fee_per_fill_usd": 0.1862
  },
  "rhythm": {
    "fills_by_dow": {
      "Friday": 383,
      "Sunday": 87,
      "Tuesday": 156,
      "Saturday": 160,
      "Thursday": 38
    },
    "fills_by_hour_utc": {
      "7": 229,
      "8": 1,
      "9": 96,
      "10": 2,
      "11": 36,
      "12": 53,
      "13": 73,
      "14": 31,
      "15": 93,
      "16": 89,
      "17": 3,
      "18": 5,
      "19": 6,
      "20": 55,
      "21": 25,
      "22": 27
    },
    "quietest_hour_utc": 8,
    "most_active_hour_utc": 7
  },
  "window": {
    "to": "2026-05-11T12:19:28Z",
    "days": 7.0,
    "from": "2026-05-04T12:19:28Z"
  },
  "account": {
    "leverage": 0.4517726202454271,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-05-11T12:19:26Z",
    "open_positions": 5,
    "margin_used_usd": 31988.987999,
    "current_value_usd": 70807.717346
  },
  "funding": {
    "funding_payments": 500,
    "total_funding_usd": 1060.25,
    "funding_vs_trading_pnl": -0.21,
    "avg_funding_per_payment_usd": 2.1205
  },
  "trading": {
    "buy_count": 335,
    "sell_count": 489,
    "total_fills": 824,
    "last_fill_at": "2026-05-10T21:54:46Z",
    "fills_per_day": 149.13,
    "first_fill_at": "2026-05-05T09:18:04Z",
    "buy_sell_ratio": 0.685,
    "distinct_assets": 10,
    "total_volume_usd": 381830.84,
    "avg_fill_size_usd": 463.39,
    "median_fill_size_usd": 320.93
  },
  "drawdown": {
    "max_drawdown_at": "2026-05-05T09:19:26Z",
    "max_drawdown_usd": -16198.05,
    "ending_cumulative_pnl_usd": -5056.94
  },
  "asset_mix": {
    "top_assets": [
      {
        "asset": "TON",
        "fills": 182,
        "win_rate": 1.0,
        "volume_pct": 0.2686,
        "volume_usd": 102556.75,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 6670.1
      },
      {
        "asset": "MEGA",
        "fills": 192,
        "win_rate": 1.0,
        "volume_pct": 0.2021,
        "volume_usd": 77172.99,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 1490.18
      },
      {
        "asset": "kPEPE",
        "fills": 106,
        "win_rate": 1.0,
        "volume_pct": 0.1808,
        "volume_usd": 69043.05,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 720.95
      },
      {
        "asset": "AZTEC",
        "fills": 120,
        "win_rate": 0.8,
        "volume_pct": 0.155,
        "volume_usd": 59184.44,
        "closed_pnl_usd": -17.11
      },
      {
        "asset": "ZEREBRO",
        "fills": 96,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "volume_pct": 0.076,
        "volume_usd": 29014.95,
        "closed_pnl_usd": -16198.05
      },
      {
        "asset": "ZRO",
        "fills": 59,
        "win_rate": null,
        "volume_pct": 0.0529,
        "volume_usd": 20202.59,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 0.0
      },
      {
        "asset": "MNT",
        "fills": 48,
        "win_rate": null,
        "volume_pct": 0.043,
        "volume_usd": 16422.69,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 0.0
      },
      {
        "asset": "HMSTR",
        "fills": 16,
        "win_rate": 1.0,
        "volume_pct": 0.0164,
        "volume_usd": 6244.5,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 2277.0
      },
      {
        "asset": "BLAST",
        "fills": 3,
        "win_rate": null,
        "volume_pct": 0.0028,
        "volume_usd": 1062.0,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 0.0
      },
      {
        "asset": "BIO",
        "fills": 2,
        "win_rate": null,
        "volume_pct": 0.0024,
        "volume_usd": 926.88,
        "closed_pnl_usd": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "distinct_assets": 10,
    "concentration_hhi": 0.1804
  },
  "pnl_curve": [
    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:04Z",
      "pnl": -69.14
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:04Z",
      "pnl": -535.64
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    {
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      "pnl": -596.85
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:08Z",
      "pnl": -1745.43
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:10Z",
      "pnl": -2644.77
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:12Z",
      "pnl": -3192.62
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:14Z",
      "pnl": -3677.09
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:20Z",
      "pnl": -5092.05
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:31Z",
      "pnl": -6128.52
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    {
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    {
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-05T09:18:42Z",
      "pnl": -10644.89
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    {
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    {
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    {
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      "pnl": -15243.89
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      "pnl": -14218.05
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    {
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      "pnl": -13895.93
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:35:00Z",
      "pnl": -13822.26
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:35:09Z",
      "pnl": -13757.1
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:37:33Z",
      "pnl": -13701.01
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:46:00Z",
      "pnl": -13635.1
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:46:07Z",
      "pnl": -13593.51
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:46:12Z",
      "pnl": -13547.83
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:46:18Z",
      "pnl": -13498.04
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T07:46:27Z",
      "pnl": -13407.31
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    {
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      "pnl": -13339.08
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    {
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      "pnl": -13286.92
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-08T19:14:23Z",
      "pnl": -13255.4
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-09T15:00:40Z",
      "pnl": -12661.84
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-09T15:20:03Z",
      "pnl": -11738.37
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-09T15:26:15Z",
      "pnl": -11062.37
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-09T15:26:26Z",
      "pnl": -10392.18
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    {
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      "pnl": -9226.34
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    {
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    {
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    {
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      "pnl": -6581.91
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    {
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      "pnl": -6503.23
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    {
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      "pnl": -6302.82
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    {
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      "pnl": -6159.74
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    {
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      "pnl": -6074.87
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-09T22:06:09Z",
      "pnl": -5996.78
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:34:25Z",
      "pnl": -5847.86
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:34:31Z",
      "pnl": -5729.03
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:34:37Z",
      "pnl": -5637.54
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:34:47Z",
      "pnl": -5502.36
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:34:49Z",
      "pnl": -5389.63
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:35:04Z",
      "pnl": -5238.15
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:35:11Z",
      "pnl": -5067.53
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    {
      "t": "2026-05-10T20:35:11Z",
      "pnl": -5056.94
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  ],
  "positions": {
    "holds_observed": 6,
    "avg_hold_seconds": 65588.11,
    "max_hold_seconds": 187603.73,
    "p95_hold_seconds": 187603.73,
    "median_hold_seconds": 45487.34
  }
}

Agent runs

Agent	Status	Duration	Input	Output	Cache R / W
classifier	completed	11.5s	652	666	5,623 / 6,158
synthesizer	completed	39.2s	6,651	2,393	5,335 / 6,577
narrator	completed	17.4s	3,093	1,232	0 / 4,725