TL;DR
Long-only multi-day swing trader running a basket of crypto alt-perps and tokenized US equities, executed as aggressive sub-second taker sweeps. The signature is a 67.7% win rate paired with avg_winner ($58) smaller than avg_loser ($73) and no hard stop — winners are scaled out in hours, losers are flushed in one block near day 5. Net +$2,479 over 30 days against a -$2,190 peak drawdown, so roughly 88% of ending PnL was once at risk.
How they trade
The book spans eight names split between high-beta alt perps (CHIP, ENA, XPL, SYRUP, ZRO) and tokenized equities (MSFT, MU, HIMS), with MSFT alone accounting for 40% of the $627k notional volume. Every observed fill is Open Long or Close Long; no shorts. Entries fire as bursts of 10+ child taker fills inside a single second, walking the book 5–15 bps — maker share is only 14.2%. Activity clusters at 15:00 UTC (119 of 325 fills, 37%), with secondary spikes at 13:00 and 06:00, and the bulk of volume on Tuesday–Wednesday, consistent with trading the US cash open on tokenized equities. Sizing is tiered: ~$4.5–5k average notional on equity perps versus ~$1.4k on alt perps, and there is no pyramiding inside a position — one entry burst, then a laddered scale-out across 5–15 ticks. Winners typically close within 2–6 hours; losers are held through multi-hour drawdowns and then dumped as a single capitulation print, with p95 hold at ~4.9 days and max at ~5.74 days acting as a soft time-stop.
Edge hypothesis
The edge looks like short-horizon directional reads on illiquid alt perps (CHIP, ENA, XPL all 100% win-rate, all longs), captured via fast taker execution before the move extends. The 15:00 UTC concentration on equity perps suggests an attempt to ride the US open's predictable opening volatility, but that sleeve actively bleeds (MSFT 41% win, HIMS 0%). Net edge is the alt-coin sleeve subsidizing a losing equity-open habit.
Numbers that matter
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win rate / profit factor | 67.7% / 1.68 |
| Avg winner vs avg loser | $58.41 vs -$73.08 |
| Median / p95 hold | 15.7h / 4.9d |
| Maker pct | 14.2% |
| Max drawdown vs ending PnL | -$2,190 vs +$2,479 |
| 15:00 UTC fill share | 119 / 325 (37%) |
| MSFT volume share / PnL | 40% / -$975 |
| Funding vs trading PnL | -$133 vs +$2,479 |
What we cannot conclude
- Only 30 days, 325 fills, and 14 completed round-trips — profit factor 1.68 is not statistically stable.
- Zero short fills observed; cannot tell if long-only is by design or by sample. A bear tape would be the actual test.
- Account snapshot is $0 with no open positions, so true equity base and realized leverage cannot be verified; sizing is inferred from notional.
- The execution signature (1-second multi-child sweeps) is consistent with both manual click-to-fill and a simple sweep algo — cannot distinguish.
- No visibility into the actual entry signal (price action, news, on-chain), only the resulting fills.